China’s ‘Decade of the Robot’ Could Bring 24M Humanoids by 2035

China’s next labor force may come with batteries, sensors, and two mechanical legs.

A new report from Barclays says humanoid robots could help China offset as much as 60% of its projected workforce decline by 2035, as the country grapples with a rapidly ageing population and slowing birth rates. The outlet estimates China’s labour force could shrink by around 37 million people over the next decade if workforce participation remains near 65%. 

The bank warned that such a drop would put pressure on the country’s massive manufacturing sector, which accounts for roughly a quarter of the economy.

Under what Barclays described as an optimistic scenario, China could deploy as many as 24 million humanoid robots by 2035. That figure would equal nearly 4% of the country’s labour force.

The ‘decade of the robot’

Barclays described the coming years as “the decade of the robot,” arguing that humanoid machines are moving beyond research labs and into real economic use thanks to advances in artificial intelligence, motion control, and battery technology.

The bank expects early deployments to focus on repetitive industrial tasks in warehouses, logistics centres, and factories before expanding into service industries and even households during the 2030s.

“Humanoids could help address labour gaps across key sectors such as agriculture and healthcare, where ageing populations, urbanisation and shifting work preferences are set to amplify labour shortage risks in the next decade,” Barclays said.

The report also argued that humanoid robots differ from traditional industrial automation because they are designed to work in spaces already built for humans. That means companies may not need to redesign factories, offices, or homes to use them.

According to Barclays, China already dominates the robotics sector and accounted for 85% of humanoid robot installations last year. The bank believes that the lead could widen as the country ramps up investment in automation and AI.

Beijing pushes automation strategy

The report comes as Beijing increasingly leans on advanced manufacturing and automation to support economic growth. The Chinese government has repeatedly emphasised the importance of science and technology investment, including robotics and AI, as key pillars of China’s future economy.

China’s demographic situation continues to worsen. The country recorded its lowest number of births in 2025 since at least 1949. The working-age population has also steadily declined, falling to around 61% of the total population from more than 70% a decade ago, according to Bloomberg. The ratio between working-age citizens and people over 65 is also expected to halve over the next two decades.

The bank believes physical AI, including humanoids, autonomous vehicles, and drones, could eventually reshape labour markets, productivity, and even inflation.

Barclays Global Head of Economic Research, Christian Keller, argued that humanoid robots may automate tasks that previous generations of machines could not perform, potentially changing how economies grow.

The report also pushed back against fears that robots will simply eliminate jobs permanently. Barclays noted that more than 60% of jobs that existed in 2018 did not exist in 1940, suggesting new forms of work may emerge alongside automation. 

At the same time, the bank argued that countries with aging populations, including China, Japan, and parts of Europe, may increasingly depend on robotics to maintain economic output as the number of working-age people declines.

Also read: China is preparing official ID numbers for humanoid robots as mass production and workplace deployment move closer.

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